Friday, 16 March 2018

Champions League Quarter Finals - Predictions

Europe's top competition is reaching boiling point. With only eight sides left battling it out for the mantel of European Champions. Out of the remaining sides three of them are hunting for their first European crown. Roma, Manchester City and Sevilla. All three sides in history with five titles also remain, in Liverpool, Barcelona and Bayern Munich. And of course, a repeat of last years final with Juventus and Real Madrid.

There are obvious favorites, dark horses, and massive underdogs. This stage of the competition always throws up interesting match ups, so lets see what this years has to offer.

Sevilla vs Bayern Munich.



Spanish side Sevilla already have their best ever placement in the Champions League to boast about. The Europa League specialists have never progressed past the last 16 in Europe's elite competition before. Achieving this by upsetting Jose's Manchester United in the last round, winning 2-1 away at Old Trafford.

But blocking their path to the semi-finals are soon to be German champions (again) Bayern Munich. Since Carlo Ancelotti's departure last October, the five time European champions have put their early season poor form behind them and are currently on a roll both domestically and in continental competition. This was shown when they easily swept past their Turkish opponents in the last round, winning 5-0 in the first leg to kill off the tie.

Despite Sevilla's heroics in reaching this round by toppling Manchester United, I feel like this is the end of the road for them. Wissam Ben Yedder's sublime form has earned him his first call up to the French national team, so Sevilla will have fire power going forward.

But if there is one thing Bayern Munich are known for (Other than making their league look like a cake walk.) It's turning on the style when the lights are at their brightest. With a front three of Muller, Lewandowski and Robben, I just don't see a way of the Spanish side's defense keeping them out. And that's what i'm going with a Bayern Munich win, 5-2 over two legs. Potentially with another Besiktas-style blow over in the second leg in Germany.

Juventus vs Real Madrid.



In a repeat of last years final, we have 12 time champions Real Madrid taking on the side with a record number of runners up medals in Juventus. Massimiliano Allergri got the better of Spurs in the last round, to see his side progress. Paulo Dybala and Gonzalo Higuain being the main attractions across both legs. Back in 2017 the game between these two sides was a lot more even then the 4-1 scoreline represents. Juve had put in a very admirable performance until the 80th minute where Madrid changed up a gear and killed off the final. In a one off game, late on especially, tactics go out the window and it comes down to who can force one final chance. And in Cardiff that was Zidane's side. However in a two legged affair, Allergri may have an advantage over Zidane when tactics are concerned. The Frenchman has came under fire for his lack of tactical knowledge in the League, and maybe the Italian Allegri could use this to his advantage in this tie. Finding a way to keep out the back-to back champions.

On the other hand. It's Real Madrid in a Champions League knockout match. Cristiano Ronaldo is breaking records left right and centre, becoming the first man in the history of the competition to score in the first eight games consecutively. Despite their worst league form in a decade, and a lack lustre group stage, Zidane's side blew past PSG in the last round. The French side many peoples favourites to go all the way. Almost in the vein of a local derby, form doesn't appear to matter when it comes to Real Madrid in the Champions League. Like any true world beater, Los Blancos know how to handle the pressure of a big game, and it has seen them collect accolade after accolade.

When comparing the two sides, my heart is telling me to go with Juventus. The Italian league leaders will be out for revenge after last years final, and Allergri will relish the opportunity to prove his tactical knowledge by knocking out the record breaking Real Madrid. Also hitting form at exactly the right time, in recent weeks Juventus have finally reclaimed top spot in Italy from Napoli, and seem to be in cruise control domestically. Meaning that their focus can be solely aimed towards ending their string of poor luck in the European cup and finally win the big one. Finally the idea of Gainluigi Buffon finally getting his hands on the one trophy that has eluded him is a story written in the heavens.

But then, my head is telling me to never back against Los Blanco. 12 time European champions. Back-to-back winners of the competition, the first time that has ever been achieved. A record breaking Cristiano Ronaldo who is flying at just the right time. Real Madrid are out of the title race in Spain, and therefore need a good showing in Europe to save their season. Perhaps even to save Zidane's job. I can think of more reasons why I believe Juve could upset the odds and knock out the holders. And yet, I'm going with a Real Madrid win. 4-2 on aggregate, but much like last years final, it will be a lot closer then the scoreline suggests.

Barcelona vs Roma.



Perhaps the tie which is easiest to call on paper sees Spanish league leaders Barcelona take on Roma. The second of the two Spanish vs Italian ties of the quarter final. Barcelona come into the game as heavy favourites, and rightfully so. With only one loss to their name in all competitions this season, that makes them the in form side left in the last eight. With the La Liga title all but won, and a Copa del rey final to take place in April, Catalonia's crowing jewel could be on their way to an historic treble. The first since Pep's great side of 2009. And only the second treble of the decade (Inter Milan under Jose in 2010.) To get to this stage Barcelona knocked out a resilient Chelsea side, 4-1 over two legs. Lionel Messi staring, scoring three of the goals across the games, and passing the 100 Champions League goal mark in record time. You can never over analyse Barcelona's attacking threat. With the likes of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and the recently fit Dembele, you'd imagine they wouldn't even notice a lack of Philipe Coutinho in their side. The Brazilian of course cup tied after featuring for Liverpool in the group stage. Their only real criticism over the years has been a leaky defence. Which this season simply isn't the case. Having only conceded 13 league goals all season, one less then the praised defensive unit of Atletico Madrid. Good luck Roma.

Perhaps however, that isn't a bad thing. Roma come into this game with zero expectations. After drawing the favourites the pressure is 100% on their opponents, win or lose, Roma have over achieved in this years competition. Topping a group with Chelsea and Atleti in, as well as over coming a first leg defeat in Ukraine against Shakhtar to reach the last eight. But the Italians will not just be happy to make up the numbers, and they do have the quality to do something special. Brazilian number one Alisson between the sticks is as good as any keeper on the planet right now, and in front of him is a defence which will take some beating. But getting past Barca will ultimately come down to if Dzeko & CO can take their chances, few as they will be. As I mentioned, Barca's defence is solid, so chances will be few and far between but as Chelsea proved, they aren't unbreakable. The Bosnian in particular will have to be on top form to keep the European dream alive.

Despite everything I've just said, it doesn't look good for Roma. Maybe in Rome, with the Stadio Olympico bouncing, Roma may have a chance. But in Barcelona, I can only see one outcome. Their is only so much you can do when your opposition 's best player is perhaps the best in the history of the Game.

Lionel Messi appears to be on a personal quest to regain his lead over Cristiano Ronaldo in the number of Ballon D'or wins to their names. And a Champions League win will go a big way to securing the accolade for the Argentine. Over two legs I'm going for a Barcelona win, 6-2. Lionel Messi to steal the show again.

Liverpool vs Manchester City.



By far, the most interesting tie the quarter finals have thrown up is the one I've left until last. English champions elect Manchester City vs Five time European champions Liverpool. This one really is a coin flip, lets start with City. Pep's side have strolled to the League title, only losing one league game all season (we'll get to that.) And with a league cup already in the bag, a treble is well within reach for the blue half of Manchester. Despite a shocking home defeat to Basel in the last round, the work was done in the first leg, winning 4-0 away from home. That defeat is one of only four in all competitions, Pep's side have been closer to perfect. Many people, including me, consider this side to be the best the Premier League has ever seen. From back-to-front the team is perfectly balanced. A goal keeper who is up for pass of the season, and a striker willing to track back and do the work for his team. They all play for each other, and seem to have a togetherness that resonates when they step over the white lines. Sergio Aguero, flanked either side by Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling. With Gabriel Jesus waiting in the wings, makes up for perhaps the most intimidating striker force outside of Catalonia. Also with David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne both having the best seasons of their careers just behind the front three, it's hard to see any side stopping City.

But Liverpool already have. Manchester City's one league defeat came at Anfield, under the lights, four goals to three. In typical Liverpool style they conceded two late on to make it appear much closer then it was, but Liverpool bossed the league leaders. Mentally that must be huge for the reds, they known they can beat City. Plus when you have Euorpe's top goal scorer in Mo Salah, you can beat anyone! The Egyptian wide man has broken the following records this season: Most goals scored in a debut season for a foreigner in Premier League history. Most left footed goals scored in Premier League history. Most goals scored in a debut season in Liverpool history. Most goals scored in a season for Liverpool in the Premier League era. And we're still only in March, he is only three goals off scoring more then ANYONE in a single season in a 38 game Premier League season. Despite Salah's brilliance, he isn't a one man team. The Kop named 'Bobby' Firmino is enjoying the highest goal scoring season of his career, and Sadio Mane has already topped last seasons tally for both goals and assists. I mentioned City's front three being terrifying, Liverpool's could arguably be better. The heavy metal football of Klopp's side can put away any team in minutes, I don't care who you are, with Salah, Firmino and Mane in full flight, you can't stop them. Liverpool's biggest flaw is their defence, which despite appearing faulty at times away to Manchester United, have kept eight clean sheets in their last eleven. Lloris Karius showing great form between the sticks, and new signing Virgil Van Dijk leading the back four.

This really could go either way. I feel like both sides will win their home fixture, but I'm really struggling to pick a winner over two legs. City's advantage is that they not only have the squad to rotate and keep fresh, but they can do so knowing the league is virtually done. Where as Liverpool are in the middle of a battle for a Champions League position for next season.

By the time the second leg comes around their is a possibility that City could be Champions of England, and the treble will be that much closer. But as anyone will tell you, Anfield on a European night is something special. Liverpool have a love affair with the European cup, and I'm going to say... it will continue into the semi-finals. Over two legs Liverpool to win, 6-4. Crazy aggregate scoreline, for what I imagine to be two crazy games.

So there is my prediction for the quarter finals of the Champions League. Two made with relative ease and two that took real thinking. I like to think I know my stuff, we'll see if that still stands in a few weeks time.

I predict Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Liverpool to progress.


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